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English
Russian Academy of Sciences
Institute of Control Sciences
Lab of Cognitive Modelling and Situation ControlCognitive Technique of Analysis and Modelling of Socio-economic ObjectsPurposeful and secure development of any region or enterprise as a socio-economic object (SEO) is impossible if the influence of external environment (socio-economic, political, etc,) is not taken into account. This is caused by the fact that modern period of society development is characterized by becoming more frequent crisis and extraordinary situations, i.e. events, that are beyond existent experience and need special measures in order to be prevented and eliminated. At the same time, threatening tendencies often become apparent long before they develop into crisis. In contrast to technical systems and objects which efficiency parameters and criteria are, as a rule, known and can be easily formalised, socio-economic systems (such as region, enterprise, etc.) and objects belong to weak-formalizable ones. That is caused by (1) the fact that economic system behaviour is influenced by a number of factors of various nature (economic, social, political, those connected with international activity, etc.); (2) absence of sufficient quantitative information on the processes that influence economic systems development. Therefore a peculiar approach, that will allow to take into account all essential diverse factors that determine SEO activity, is needed. Besides, techniques used within the framework of such approach, should allow to receive results as soon as possible due to lack of time a decision maker has and growing risk and damage from wrong decision, caused by acceleration of economic, and other processes and their uncertainty.
The technique of cognitive analysis and situation control, developed in the Lab of Cognitive Modelling & Situation Control of the Institute of Control Sciences, allows a decision maker or his analyst team to cope with the above methodological issues. The technique is a cyclic process that includes the following stages. Cognitive structuringAt the present stage (1) structuring of knowledge on the object and (2) creation of cognitive model of SEO are carried out. Structuring of knowledge on socio-economic object is carried out using PEST and SWOT analysis. Results of the carried out analysis are: (1) set of factors that essentially influence the SEO activity (basic factors); (2) problem areas of situation that describe threats to SEO activity and gaps in its maintenance. Construction of SEO cognitive model Cognitive map is the initial static representation (reflection) of connections between the factors existing in the situation under research. To solve a SEO problem it is necessary to construct a dynamic model and on its basis to obtain a new knowledge on the structure and dynamics of a situation under research. Analysis of a graph model of a situation associated with a cognitive map allows revealing the structural properties of a situation. Structure and goal analysis of the modelAt this stage the one analyses the goals of SEO development and controls, used for their achievement, on consistency and determines the most efficient control actions. Scenario modelling of a situation developmentAt the present stage modelling of a situation development is carried out. Modelling can be carried out in conditions of SEO self-development (without any control actions influencing processes in a situation, when a situation is allowed to run its natural course) and SEO controlled development. Scenario consists of a set of factor tendencies describing a situation at the present moment, desirable goals, set of activities that are used upon the running of a situation, and system of observable parameters (factors) illustrating the processes behaviour. Interpretation of resultsAt this stage strategies of SEO development are worked out on the basis of the results drawn at the previous stage. Cognitive monitoringCognitive monitoring includes observation of the current situation around SEO as well as discovering tendencies threatening to SEO development. Monitoring of the present situation enables to discover new key factors influencing SEO development. In this case the model is updated. Cognitive monitoring of a SEO development consists in discovering of threatening tendencies of external environment and weaknesses of SEO, which can both become a reason of crisis or prevent the SEO from its purposeful development. Software RealizationComputer support of Stages 2-5 of the described technique is provided with the developed modelling dialogue software package "Situation - 2". DSP "Situation-2" ensures: 1. Construction of cognitive model of a situation : - selection and substantiation of the basic factors of a situation;
- construction of graph model of a situation.
2. Structural interpretation of problems that require solution. 3. Structural analysis of the situation. 4. Searching and substantiation of secure strategies: - choice and substantiation of the desirable goals;
- choice of activities (controls) necessary for reaching of goals;
- analysis of basic possibility of reaching of goals from initial state of a situation with the use of selected activities;
- analysis of restrictions on a possibility of realization of the selected activities in reality;
- analysis and substantiation of a real possibility of goal reaching;
- development and comparison of secure strategy of SEO development.
5. Substantiation of possible scenarios of the situation development. 6. Automatic generation of the reports and systematization of results of a problem modelling. DSP "Situation" allows examining of two classes of analytical problems: Our basic publications in English are listed bellow. 1. Maximov V. (2001). Cognitive Analysis and Situation Modelling. Proceedings of the 8th IFAC Conference "Social Stability: The Challenge of Technology Development" (SWIIS-01). 2. Maximov V., Kornoushenko E., Makarenko D. (2001). Use of Cognitive Modelling for Analysis of Socio-Economic Processes and Estimation of Variants of Regional Development. Proceedings of the 10th IFAC Symposium Information Control Problems in Manufacturing (INCOM 2001). 3. Maximov V., Kornoushenko E. (2001). Mathematical Basics of Construction the Graph and Computer Models for Complicated Situations. Proceedings of the IFAC Symposium on Modelling and Control of Economic Systems (SME 2001). 4. Maximov V., Kornoushenko E. (2001). Analitical Basics of Construction of Graph and Computer Models for Complicated Situations. Proceedings of the 10th IFAC Symposium Information Control Problems in Manufacturing (INCOM 2001). 5. Kornoushenko E., Maximov V. (2001). Cognitive Model for Correction and Tactical Management of Enterprise Activity. Proceedings of the IFAC Symposium on Modelling and Control of Economic Systems (SME 2001). 6. Makarenko D., Avdeeva Z., Maximov V. (2004). Cognitive Approach to Control of Socio-Economic Systems Security. Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference Systems, Men & Cybernetics (SMC 2004). 7. Avdeeva Z., Kovriga S., Makarenko D., Maximov V. (2003). Goal Setting and Working out of the Strategy of Development of Socio-economic Objects. Proceedings of the IFAC Workshop Technology and International Stability. 8. Avdeeva Z., Kovriga S., Makarenko D., Maximov V. (2003). Goal Setting and Structure and Goal Analysis of Complex Systems and Situations. Proceedings of the 8th IFAC Symposium Automated Systems Based on Human Skill and Knowledge.
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